The country has reported just 94 deaths from 24,873 cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
Germany, where 21% of the population are over 65, appears to have one of the world’s lowest death rates. Data on patient characteristics such as age and underlying health conditions is another factor we don’t know about. Testing and the number of confirmed cases is also an issue.ĭifferences in testing policy, for example, will account for some of the variations in mortality rates as testing more patients will increase the number of confirmed cases, and is likely to reduce the overall mortality rate.
Covid-19 is more dangerous for older people. The UK is younger on average – with 18% of its population in this age category. One reason for Italy’s high death rate could be the country’s demographics – 23% of its population are aged 65 and over. Interactive Different demographics – and testing “When you hit the capacity of intensive care beds then you might get an additional shift up which could reset the rate of increase thereafter,” said Bird. One factor that will have a substantial impact on deaths is the capacity for hospitals to care for the most seriously ill patients, and this differs markedly from country to country. However, comparisons present problems, as it’s not possible to truly compare like-with-like.
The UK’s peak may not be so severe if the UK’s response to the outbreak has been effective, Spiegelhalter said, but the answer to that is not yet clear.Ĭompared with Britain, Italy had less time to prepare, the virus may have been circulating more widely before it was detected, and the country has more older people who are more tightly connected to family and friends. The same analysis hints that Italy may be approaching a peak in its epidemic, but the answer will only be clear if the country continues to report falling numbers of new deaths over the coming days and weeks. There was “some reason for hope,” he said of the UK situation, “although we will must be ready for having hundreds of deaths a day.” Has Italy reached its peak – and what about the UK? Spiegelhalter stressed that the outlook was “all very uncertain at the moment” not least because the two populations and their nations’ responses to the outbreak differ so much. The figures suggest that UK Covid-19 deaths have risen on average about 30% per day, versus 37% during the equivalent period of Italy’s epidemic. Prof David Spiegelhalter, at Cambridge University’s Statistical Laboratory, looked at the numbers of deaths reported in the 14 days since the fifth fatality in each country.
Researchers studying the impact of emissions from industry and transport on climate change and human health are scrambling to understand the possible implications of the pandemic as economies slow, flights are disrupted and quarantines imposed.On Monday, a new analysis of data from both countries showed that deaths may indeed be rising marginally more slowly in Britain than they did in Italy. Satellite image from March 11, 2020. European Space Agency via Reuters Italy has been hardest hit by the outbreak in Europe, with more than 21,100 confirmed cases and more than 1,400 dead, and the government has imposed the most severe controls placed on a western nation since the Second World War. “Although there could be slight variations in the data due to cloud cover and changing weather, we are very confident that the reduction in emissions that we can see coincides with the lockdown in Italy causing less traffic and industrial activities,” Claus Zehner, who manages the agency’s Copernicus Sentinel-5P satellite mission, said in a statement.Īn animated image showing nitrogen dioxide emissions across Europe in January 2020. European Space Agency via ReutersĮSA published an animation showing how nitrogen dioxide emissions fluctuated across Europe from January 1 to March 11, using a 10-day moving average, clearly showing pollution levels dropping over northern Italy. The European Space Agency said it had observed a particularly marked decline in emissions of nitrogen dioxide, a noxious gas emitted by power plants, cars and factories, over the Po Valley region in northern Italy. Air pollution over northern Italy fell after the government introduced a nationwide lockdown to combat coronavirus, satellite imagery showed on Friday, in a new example of the pandemic’s potential impact on emissions.Ĭhina, where the outbreak started, showed a marked reduction in pollution after the government imposed travel bans and quarantines, and the data from Italy, which was hit hard several weeks later, suggested a similar pattern.
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